Rising Tensions in the Middle East: Will Muslim Nations Join Iran in a Regional War?

A Region on the Brink: The Escalating Threat of War

With tensions between Iran and several Western and regional powers reaching dangerous new heights, fears of a full-scale conflict erupting in the Middle East are no longer confined to diplomatic circles. What was once considered political posturing now appears to be edging toward military escalation — raising a critical question: If war breaks out, will other Muslim-majority nations side with Iran?

The answer is complex, and hinges not just on military alliances, but religious sectarian dynamics, historical relationships, political interests, and geopolitical calculations. This article unpacks the forces that could shape an unprecedented alignment of Muslim nations in support — or opposition — to Iran.

Why Is Iran at the Center of the Storm?

Iran has long positioned itself as a regional counterweight to both Western influence and Sunni Arab dominance. Its strategic support for proxy groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine has earned it both staunch allies and bitter enemies. Tensions have deepened further following a series of high-profile incidents — from suspected Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military assets in Syria to the deadly tit-for-tat attacks involving Iran-backed militias and U.S. forces in Iraq.

More recently, Iran's nuclear ambitions and its increasingly aggressive military posturing in the Strait of Hormuz — a vital shipping lane — have alarmed Western and Gulf powers alike. The possibility of Israel or the United States launching preemptive strikes on Iranian facilities could trigger a rapid and violent regional response.

Who Might Join Iran in the Event of War?

1. Syria

Syria is perhaps Iran’s closest state ally in the region. Bound by years of military and financial support during Syria's civil war, the Assad regime is likely to align with Tehran in any major conflict. Iranian troops and Hezbollah fighters already operate inside Syrian territory, providing Tehran with a forward military presence close to Israel.

2. Iraq

Iraq’s position is more delicate. While the Iraqi government seeks to remain neutral, powerful Iran-backed Shiite militias — including Kata'ib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq — wield considerable influence. These groups have repeatedly attacked U.S. and coalition forces. If war breaks out, their allegiance to Iran could drag Iraq into the conflict despite Baghdad’s attempts at balance.

3. Lebanon (Hezbollah)

Though not a nation-state, Hezbollah’s presence in Lebanon is pivotal. As Iran’s most powerful proxy force, Hezbollah has signaled readiness to open a northern front against Israel in the event of a broader conflict. A war involving Hezbollah could spark massive retaliation and plunge Lebanon — already facing political and economic collapse — into deeper chaos.

4. Yemen (Houthi Rebels)

The Houthi movement in Yemen, officially known as Ansar Allah, receives logistical and military support from Iran. Over the past decade, they have carried out attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Should Iran be directly targeted, the Houthis are likely to escalate their operations across the Arabian Peninsula.

Muslim Nations That May Stay Neutral — Or Oppose Iran

1. Saudi Arabia

Despite recent diplomatic thawing, Saudi Arabia remains ideologically and strategically opposed to Iran. As the leader of the Sunni Muslim world, Riyadh has long viewed Iran’s regional activities as a threat to its sovereignty and religious influence. While the kingdom may avoid direct confrontation to preserve recent diplomatic gains, it is unlikely to support Tehran, especially if Iranian proxies threaten Saudi interests.

2. United Arab Emirates (UAE)

The UAE has worked to maintain a complex relationship with Iran, balancing economic ties with national security concerns. While unlikely to militarily support Iran, it may hesitate to take part in aggressive coalition action unless directly provoked. Its involvement will depend heavily on Iran’s behavior in the Gulf.

3. Turkey

Turkey’s role is less predictable. While Ankara has challenged Western influence in the region and shares certain geopolitical concerns with Iran, their rivalry — particularly in Syria and the South Caucasus — remains unresolved. Turkey is more likely to pursue a self-interested path, leveraging any conflict for regional gains rather than joining an Iranian-led coalition.

4. Pakistan

Pakistan, a nuclear-armed Muslim nation, has historically tried to walk a tightrope between Iran and its strategic partners in the Gulf. While Islamabad maintains good ties with Tehran, it is unlikely to engage militarily unless directly attacked. Pakistan’s primary concern will be managing spillover effects and maintaining internal stability.

The Sectarian Divide: Sunni vs. Shia Tensions

One of the most decisive factors in any hypothetical coalition is the Sunni-Shia divide. Iran, as the largest Shia-majority nation, has long sought to position itself as the protector of oppressed Muslims, especially Shias across the region. However, many Sunni-majority nations view Iran’s ambitions with deep suspicion, fearing a resurgence of Shia political influence and revolution-inspired ideology.

This divide may prevent a unified front of Muslim countries in support of Iran, particularly when governments fear internal unrest from minority Shia populations.

Public Sentiment vs. Government Policy

In several Muslim-majority nations — including Jordan, Egypt, and Indonesia — public sentiment may lean toward Iran in any confrontation with Israel or the West, particularly due to shared grievances over Palestinian suffering and Western military interventions. However, public sympathy does not always translate to state action.

Governments in these countries are likely to tread carefully, offering rhetorical support to avoid domestic unrest while avoiding military involvement that could trigger economic or diplomatic fallout.

The Role of Global Powers

Any alignment of Muslim nations with Iran will not happen in a vacuum. China and Russia, both strategic allies of Tehran, may push for diplomatic resolutions but could also provide logistical or cyber support. Conversely, the United States, NATO, and Israel are expected to respond forcefully to any coalition that threatens their regional interests.

The behavior of global powers will play a decisive role in whether the conflict escalates into a regional war or remains a limited confrontation.

Conclusion: The Possibility of an Islamic Coalition Remains Divided

While Iran commands loyalty from several non-state actors and allied governments, the likelihood of a broad, unified Islamic military coalition forming around Tehran is slim. Deep political rifts, religious divisions, and national interests will likely prevent most Muslim-majority nations from joining Iran directly in a war.

However, if conflict intensifies, the Middle East could witness an unprecedented alignment of paramilitary forces, proxy militias, and popular uprisings that challenge conventional military boundaries. The next few months will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can contain the tensions — or whether the region will be drawn into another devastating chapter of warfare.