Can the INDIA Bloc Hold Together in 2025? Unpacking the Challenges of Post-Poll Coalition Politics

Can the INDIA Bloc Sustain Unity Post Elections? A Deep Dive into Coalition Politics in 2025

New Delhi, May 29, 2025 — After months of intense campaigning and a closely fought general election in 2024, the INDIA bloc—a coalition of major opposition parties—has emerged as a significant counterweight to the ruling NDA. Yet, as the dust settles, the bigger question looms: Can this ideologically diverse alliance hold together in 2025 and beyond?

Formed with the primary goal of defeating the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) brought together parties with conflicting state-level interests, varied ideological leanings, and divergent leadership aspirations. Now, as the alliance transitions from campaign mode to governance and opposition coordination, cracks are beginning to show.

This article delves into the future of the INDIA bloc, the political forces at play, and whether the coalition can survive the inevitable tests of unity that lie ahead.

A Coalition Born of Necessity, Not Ideology

The INDIA bloc was not formed on the bedrock of ideological unity but out of strategic compulsion. The Indian National Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Trinamool Congress (TMC), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Shiv Sena (UBT), and several other regional players joined hands in 2023 under the shared banner of anti-BJP sentiment.

While the alliance made impressive gains in some states during the 2024 elections, winning over 200 seats collectively (Election Commission of India), its lack of a clear, cohesive post-election roadmap has become increasingly evident.

Key Flashpoints Threatening INDIA Bloc Unity

1. Leadership Vacuum

One of the earliest challenges post-elections has been the question of leadership. While Congress emerged as the largest party within the bloc, its insistence on Rahul Gandhi as the de facto leader has drawn silent pushback from regional heavyweights like Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal.

According to The Hindu, negotiations over who will lead the opposition in Parliament have already stalled twice, reflecting deeper tensions.

2. State-Level Rivalries

Despite their national alliance, many INDIA bloc members are rivals in their home states:

• AAP and Congress continue to battle for political space in Delhi and Punjab.

• TMC and Congress are locked in competitive politics in West Bengal.

• In Kerala, the CPI(M)-led LDF remains hostile toward the Congress, despite both being part of the INDIA narrative at the center.

These dynamics make seat-sharing and long-term coordination extremely difficult.

3. Ideological Incoherence

From the centrist Congress to the left-leaning CPI(M) to the pro-regional autonomy stance of DMK and TMC, the alliance lacks a common ideological platform beyond opposition to the BJP. This incoherence poses serious risks to policy consensus, especially if the bloc aims to propose legislation or joint parliamentary resolutions.

A policy analyst at Observer Research Foundation (ORF) noted:

“Without a shared policy agenda, the INDIA bloc risks becoming a reactionary force rather than a constructive alternative.”

Signs of Discontent Already Visible

While senior leaders of the bloc insist that differences are “normal in a democratic setup,” recent developments suggest otherwise:

• AAP skipped a joint press conference after a disagreement over the leadership of the opposition’s ethics committee.

• TMC’s decision to field its own candidate for the Lok Sabha Speaker—instead of backing the Congress nominee—was seen as a breach of trust.

• JD(U) has publicly hinted at re-evaluating its alliance status if “Congress oversteps boundaries,” as reported by The Print.

Can a Common Minimum Programme Revive Cohesion?

Political observers have recommended that the bloc urgently formulate a Common Minimum Programme (CMP) to offer a unified legislative vision. This would mirror the approach used during the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) era, where parties with diverse views agreed on basic priorities like welfare schemes, employment guarantees, and federal autonomy.

The Congress has proposed reviving the UPA Coordination Committee structure, but it remains unclear if regional parties will agree to a system that implicitly gives Congress a central role.

A draft CMP being circulated, according to sources in Indian Express, includes focus areas such as:

• Strengthening federalism

• Judicial and institutional reforms

• Reviving MSMEs and job growth

• Social welfare expansion

What India’s Political History Tells Us

India's coalition history offers important lessons. Previous alliances such as the Janata Party (1977) and National Front (1989) crumbled due to ego clashes and ideological dissonance. The UPA (2004–2014) sustained for a decade, primarily due to clear leadership and a shared agenda.

Unless the INDIA bloc evolves from a campaign alliance into a governance-oriented structure, it may suffer the same fate as its predecessors.

Public Sentiment and Media Scrutiny

A recent survey by Lokniti-CSDS showed that while 58% of respondents supported the idea of a united opposition, only 36% believed it could last a full five-year term. This underlines growing public skepticism about the alliance’s long-term viability.

Media outlets have also been critical of the bloc's post-election ambiguity. As Scroll.in wrote in an editorial:

“Unity is not a goal—it is a process that requires sustained compromise and clarity of purpose. The INDIA bloc, so far, lacks both.”

The Road Ahead: Three Possible Scenarios

Scenario 1: Durable Alliance
The bloc agrees on a rotational leadership model and a CMP, setting the tone for long-term coordination.

Scenario 2: Managed Fragmentation
Parties cooperate on issue-based parliamentary work but maintain independent identities and strategies.

Scenario 3: Early Collapse
With state elections approaching in Bihar and West Bengal, growing rivalry leads to a de facto split, ending formal coordination.

Conclusion

The INDIA bloc’s future depends not just on defeating a common adversary but on building genuine internal trust, ideological alignment, and a shared roadmap. Coalition politics in India has never been easy—but the stakes in 2025 are higher than ever.

With public demand for democratic alternatives rising, the INDIA bloc has a unique opportunity to redefine what opposition unity means in the 21st century. Whether it rises to the challenge or disintegrates under pressure will shape the contours of Indian politics for years to come.

For more political deep dives and real-time coalition updates, follow:
🔗 NDTV Politics
🔗 The Hindu – Political Pulse
🔗 LiveMint – Political Economy
🔗 PRS Legislative Research – For tracking opposition performance in Parliament