Power Realigned: By-Election Wins and Delhi Defeat Signal Changing Fortunes in Indian Politics

1. Assembly Bypolls Held June 19, Results Declared June 23

Five by-elections were held across key states:

• Punjab (Ludhiana West)

  • Winner: AAP’s Sanjeev Arora (Rajya Sabha MP) reclaims the seat with 10,637-vote margin, defeating Congress’s Bharat Bhushan Ashu and BJP’s Jiwan Gupta timesofindia.indiatimes.com+11indianexpress.com+11m.economictimes.com+11.

  • Impact: AAP consolidates its urban foothold; this win was crucial ahead of civic polls.

• Kerala (Nilambur)

  • Winner: Congress’s Aryadan Shoukath wins by over 10,000 votes, wresting the seat from CPI(M) and ending LDF’s nine-year strongholdm.economictimes.com+2indianexpress.com+2indiatoday.in+2.

  • Significance: A morale booster for Congress, setting up momentum for 2026 assembly electionsm.economictimes.com+2indianexpress.com+2indiatoday.in+2.

• Gujarat (Visavadar & Kadi SC)

  • Visavadar: AAP’s Gopal Italia triumphs by ~17,000 votes over BJP’s Kirit Patelresults.eci.gov.in+7m.economictimes.com+7ndtv.com+7.

  • Kadi: BJP’s Rajendrakumar Daneshwar Chavda secures a dominant win by 39,452 votesm.economictimes.com+1ndtv.com+1.

• West Bengal (Kaliganj)

  • Winner: TMC’s Alifa Ahmed wins decisively with a ~102,759-vote margin over BJPtimesofindia.indiatimes.com+12m.economictimes.com+12indianexpress.com+12.

Summary:
AAP secures two seats (Punjab, Gujarat), Congress one (Kerala), BJP one (Gujarat), TMC one (West Bengal). These bypolls reveal strong regional dynamics and are seen as a barometer for upcoming assembly and general elections.

2. February 2025 Delhi Assembly Election – Major Upset

Delhi’s Legislative Assembly elections took place on 5 February 2025, with results declared 8 February 2025timesofindia.indiatimes.com+3en.wikipedia.org+3en.wikipedia.org+3:

• BJP: Seizes power after 27 years, winning 48 out of 70 seats, +40 seats increase

• AAP: Drops from 62 to 22 seats, loses majority

• Vote Share: BJP – 47.15%; AAP – 43.57%; Swing of +7.4pp for BJP, –10pp for AAPen.wikipedia.org+1timesofindia.indiatimes.com+1

Why This Matters:
BJP’s sweeping comeback highlights voter frustration with AAP, especially over corruption allegations tied to the liquor policy and misuse of the CM’s residence (“Sheesh Mahal”)en.wikipedia.org.

3. Broader Election Trends in 2025

• Assam Panchayat & Chhattisgarh Local Bodies:
  NDA-led alliances strengthened in local polls. Assam’s BJP-AGP won sweeping victories in Zilla Parishads and Anchalik Parishadstimesofindia.indiatimes.comtimesofindia.indiatimes.com+2en.wikipedia.org+2timesofindia.indiatimes.com+2. In Chhattisgarh’s municipalities (Feb 2025), BJP secured 126 of 173 seats, Congress won just 30en.wikipedia.org.

• Upcoming Contests:
  The Bihar Assembly election is scheduled for October–November 2025, with major parties locked in fresh realignments and opinion polls showing a tight raceen.wikipedia.org.

Key Takeaways

What to Watch Next

• Bihar’s October–November election—major battleground between NDA and Mahagathbandhan.

• State assembly polls in 2026—building on bypoll momentum in West Bengal, Kerala, Punjab, Gujarat.

• Local civic polls—Delhi civic bodies, Mumbai municipal wards, and further rounds in Chhattisgarh will test the durability of these shifts.