Taiwan’s “Great Recall”: Voters Likely to Oust One‑Fifth of Legislature in Vote Closely Watched by China
On July 26, Taiwan holds unprecedented recall votes targeting 24 KMT lawmakers—nearly one‑fifth of the legislature—amid accusations of China‑backed interference and a possible shift in legislative control.

On July 26, 2025, Taiwanese voters are casting ballots in a landmark recall election that could see up to 24 lawmakers from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) removed—representing nearly one‑fifth of the Legislative Yuan’s 113 seats. Dubbed Taiwan's “Great Recall,” these ballots stand to significantly alter the island’s political balance and are being monitored closely in Beijing.
This mass recall marks the first of its kind in a mature democracy and reflects the deepening polarisation between the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the KMT‑TPP opposition bloc. It offers the DPP an opportunity to reclaim legislative control, while opponents argue the campaign threatens democratic integrity.
Background: Origins of the Recall Movement
Taiwan’s recall mechanism, governed by the Public Officials Election and Recall Act, requires recall proponents to gather signatures from 1% then 10% of local electors before a ballot. A 25% turnout minimum with more votes in favour than against is required for removal Financial Times+15Wikipedia+15Yahoo News+15Foreign Policy+3Reuters+3Wikipedia+3Foreign Policy.
Since early 2025, civic groups aligned with the DPP launched an organized campaign targeting 24 KMT legislators and the mayor of Hsinchu. The campaign accused the KMT of obstructing key legislation—especially the defense budget—and passing reforms that weaken the presidency KOB.com+1AP News+1.
The movement followed months of legislative battles and constitutional controversy dubbed the Bluebird Movement, during which the KMT coalition pushed through reforms expanding legislative power over the executive—sparking protests and legal challenges Wikipedia+1Wikipedia+1.
Stakes: How the Election Could Reshape Parliament
Currently, the KMT holds 52 seats, while the DPP sits at 51, with the Taiwan People’s Party holding eight. To regain majority, the DPP needs to recall at least six KMT lawmakers and win all by‑elections held within three months of any successful removal Wikipedia+15Reuters+15AP News+15.
Even a handful of recalls could tilt legislative control, enabling the DPP to pass its agenda—especially around defence spending, executive authority, and judicial reform.
Political Atmosphere: Campaigning Amid Tensions
In the run‑up to the vote, both sides held mass rallies. Pro‑recall supporters, led by civic groups and cultural figures, packed public squares in Taipei, chanting slogans like “Fake Legislators are Real Communist Bandits” AP News+1Times Union+1. KMT leaders, including party chairman and speaker of the legislature, urged voters to reject the recalls during counter‑rallies, warning against perceived political reprisals and a breakdown of democratic norms AP NewsTimes Union.
Polling by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation in mid‑July suggested 48% oppose the recalls, while 41.7% support them, indicating a potential challenge for proponents to meet the turnout threshold Times Union+12Foreign Policy Research Institute+12Wikipedia+12.
The China Factor: Interference or Influence?
China has vocally supported the KMT throughout the recall campaign. State media and the Taiwan Affairs Office have repeatedly denounced the recalls as politically motivated and framed them as DPP-led “green terror,” reflecting DPP’s party colour AP News+6Reuters+6Reuters+6.
In response, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council accused Beijing of direct interference, saying China's messaging echoed KMT talking points. The Council emphasized that voting outcomes should remain in the hands of Taiwan’s citizens, free of external pressure Reuters+1Reuters+1.
Constitutional Implications: Crisis or Corrective?
Analysts warn that Taiwan’s political gridlock and legislative-executive friction have pushed the island into a quasi-constitutional crisis. Since late 2024, political stalemate has paralyzed governance. Critics argue the recall campaign is a strategic move by DPP-aligned groups to regain power by circumventing electoral norms Foreign Policy Research InstituteForeign Policy.
Others see the recall as a legal tool within Taiwan’s democracy that allows voters to hold legislators accountable—but its use on such a scale, targeting over a fifth of parliament, is unprecedented and raises concerns about misuse and polarization.
Regional Reactions and International Watch
Taiwan’s high-stakes election is being closely watched across the geopolitical landscape. Analysts in Washington, Tokyo and Canberra view this as more than an internal political drama—it is a potential flashpoint in China–US–Taiwan geopolitical tensions IISSCIAO.
Should DPP retake legislative control through recalls and by-elections, it would reinforce President Lai Ching‑te’s governance and its security posture towards China. Conversely, a KMT survival would bolster moderating voices favouring engagement with Beijing.
What Happens After the Vote
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If recalls succeed: By‑elections must be held within three months—KMT may contest those seats again.
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If recalls fail or turnout is low: Recall proponents are barred from repeating the effort against the same official for the rest of the term Reuters+5Reuters+5AP News+5AP News+1Times Union+1.
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Results are expected later on July 26, as polling ends at 16:00 local time (08:00 GMT) ReutersTimes Union.
Both sides vow to mobilize key demographics—youth, rural voters, urban swing districts—with aggressive ground campaigns and messaging.
Broader Implications
This recall vote is more than a local legislative tussle—it reflects broader themes:
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Democratic resilience vs. political weaponisation of recall laws
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Mainland China’s continued pressure on Taiwan’s democratic institutions
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Public fatigue with legislative paralysis and polarization
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Strategic messaging by both parties ahead of the 2028 general elections
If the DPP secures majority, it may pursue judicial reform bills, accelerate defence funding, and pass anti-influence legislation. If successful recalls are followed by by-elections favouring the KMT or TPP, Taiwan’s legislative deadlock may persist.
Public Sentiment: Beyond Party Lines
While civic groups and political parties dominate the narrative, many Taiwanese express concern over uncertainty and democratic trust. Street-level opinion surveys show frustration with both parties: the DPP for gridlock, and the KMT for perceived closeness to Beijing. Many see the recall battle as sidestepping longer-term solutions to political accountability and institutional reforms.
Conclusion
Taiwan’s July 26 recall election—targeting nearly one‑fifth of its legislature—is a consequential political drama. With stakes involving legislative control, democratic integrity, and cross‑strait tensions, it underscores how internal civic activism, constitutional law, and geopolitics intertwine in Taiwan’s vibrant but fragile democracy.
What unfolds today may reverberate beyond Taiwan—resonating in capitals across East Asia and shaping perceptions of how democracies manage internal discord and external pressure. Whether this “Great Recall” becomes a model for accountability or a cautionary tale of political toolisation will depend on today’s turnout and tomorrow’s results.