Opposition Aftermath: Can the INDIA Bloc Survive the NDA Wave Post-2024 Elections?

The dust has settled on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and while the NDA has returned to power, it did so with a significantly reduced majority. For the INDIA bloc—the ambitious alliance of opposition parties including the Congress, AAP, DMK, TMC, Shiv Sena (UBT), SP, and others—the outcome is both a defeat and a validation. They may not have unseated the BJP, but they’ve successfully cut into its dominance, reshaping the national narrative.

But the more pressing question now is: Can the INDIA bloc hold together post-elections, or will old rivalries and ideological differences cause it to unravel?

A Mixed Mandate: INDIA Bloc’s Strong Showing in Key States

The INDIA bloc surprised many by making serious gains in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, and West Bengal. The Samajwadi Party (SP) emerged as a powerhouse in UP, denting the BJP’s base. Congress performed strongly in Karnataka and Telangana, while the TMC maintained its hold over Bengal.

Despite losing the election, INDIA’s seat count—hovering around 220+—indicates that the bloc succeeded in making the 2024 election competitive and ideologically polarized. This success, however, was asymmetrical, with some allies performing better than others, sparking early signs of internal friction.

For detailed election performance metrics, refer to Election Commission of India – Results 2024.

Cracks Below the Surface: The Challenge of Ideological Cohesion

The INDIA alliance is, at best, a pragmatic coalition of regional parties and ideologically diverse players. With left-leaning, centrist, and regional nationalist ideologies at play, the alliance was always held together more by anti-BJP sentiment than a common governance framework.

Post-elections, the absence of a clear roadmap has become evident:

• TMC leader Mamata Banerjee has hinted at maintaining independence in Bengal-specific decisions.

• AAP and Congress continue to be competitors in Delhi and Punjab, raising coordination concerns.

• JD(U) and TDP, once seen as possible INDIA entrants, have aligned with the NDA, further weakening opposition arithmetic.

In-depth context on alliance structures and their evolution can be found in this PRS Legislative Research article on Indian coalition dynamics.

Congress: Relevance Revived or Role Reimagined?

The Congress Party, led by Mallikarjun Kharge and prominently represented by Rahul Gandhi during the campaign, finds itself in a complicated position. It made gains in southern and central India, and performed credibly compared to 2019, but questions about its ability to lead the alliance persist.

As analyst Yogendra Yadav noted in a recent The Wire commentary, “Congress must now decide whether it wishes to lead from the front, or empower regional players to be the alliance’s face in states where it lacks grassroots presence.”

This internal balancing act is critical for INDIA’s future. Leadership ambiguity could deter long-term strategy and alienate regional partners.

The Road Ahead: Revival or Rupture?

Several factors will determine whether the INDIA bloc sustains or shatters:

1. Common Minimum Program (CMP)

A shared policy agenda is urgently needed. Without it, INDIA risks looking like a short-term electoral platform, not a legitimate alternative. Discussions around education reform, jobs, and federalism must be center stage.

2. State Elections in 2025

Upcoming polls in Bihar, Haryana, and Delhi will test INDIA’s unity. Will allies campaign together? Can vote transfers actually happen on the ground? These are practical tests of unity, not just optics.

3. Strategic Communication

To counter the BJP’s media dominance, INDIA needs a unified media outreach plan. Regional silos must be replaced with coordinated messaging, both online and offline.

What Political Analysts Are Saying

Political scientist Neelanjan Sircar, writing for Centre for Policy Research, argued that “INDIA’s survival depends less on arithmetic and more on narrative-building. Unless they articulate a vision for governance beyond anti-incumbency, they will remain reactive.”

Journalist Barkha Dutt noted in her Mojo Story analysis, “The INDIA bloc has moral capital right now. What it lacks is executive coherence.”

Conclusion: Not Defeated, But Not United Either

The INDIA bloc has proven that a diverse opposition can mount a challenge to the BJP, even if it falls short electorally. However, the real test begins now—governance in opposition, narrative-building, and maintaining unity in the face of state-level contradictions and national ambition.

Will the INDIA bloc rise as a credible counterweight in Indian politics, or will it be another chapter in India’s long history of fractured opposition alliances?

The weeks and months ahead will tell.